Regulated US prediction markets

A trader's field notes on Kalshi.

I'm Jake Morrison, a Chicago-based former CME equity index futures quant. I write about Kalshi markets, liquidity, fees, election odds, macro contracts, and what actually matters when real money is on the line.

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Kalshi guides

Start with what Kalshi is, then compare Polymarket VPN risk and the Kalshi US alternative before digging into fees, KYC, settlement, taxes, order books, and market structure.

Payout calculator

Estimate implied probability, cash at risk, break-even price, and payout before sizing a YES or NO contract.

Market reads

Macro, election, sports, crypto, and geopolitics contracts viewed through liquidity and expected value. Start with the ticker and news guide.

Realistic risk

No guaranteed edge, no signal selling, no hype. Prediction markets are speculative and you can lose money.

Latest articles

New here? Start with what Kalshi is, then use the Kalshi markets guide, the Kalshi payout calculator, the Kalshi tax hub, and the Kalshi FAQ. For fast updates, use the Telegram channel.