An independent trader's perspective on regulated US prediction markets

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Hands-on reviews, market analysis, and trade-by-trade commentary on Kalshi — written by someone actually putting money on the line.

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About

I'm Jake — based in Chicago, formerly traded equity index futures on CME. Moved into prediction markets two years ago when I realized the inefficiencies in election and macro contracts dwarf anything you'll find on a regulated exchange.

Started on Polymarket, but US-side blocks pushed me fully to Kalshi. This site documents what I trade, why, and what I'd tell a friend asking "is this legit?"

Not financial advice. Just a trader thinking out loud.