By Kalshi View Editorial Team · 2026-08-07 · Snapshot August 7, 2026

Photo: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Source (Wikimedia Commons). License: Public Domain (US Government).

October 2026 FOMC on Kalshi: Dates & Rules Snapshot

Quick answer: The Federal Reserve calendar lists the October FOMC meeting for October 27-28, 2026, with the policy decision on October 28. Unlike the September and December meetings, this meeting does not include a Summary of Economic Projections. On August 7, 2026, Kalshi's official event API showed KXFEDDECISION-26OCT with five active, mutually exclusive markets; the October 22 recheck found the same five-strike structure still active on both public API endpoints, with the fifth market now recorded as KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-H26 instead of the August record's H50. This is a dated rules snapshot, not a live odds page.

October 22 pre-event recheck: six days out

This guide was rechecked on October 22, 2026, six days before the scheduled decision, against the live Federal Reserve calendar and Kalshi's two public API endpoints. The meeting dates hold, the event remains open with five active markets, and one August record needed a factual correction.

• Federal Reserve, live on October 22: the FOMC meeting is still listed for October 27-28, 2026, with no SEP asterisk for October. The calendar page's “Last Update” stamp is now October 7, 2026 — moved from the July 29 stamp recorded in the August snapshot — and the September 15-16 meeting minutes were released October 7.
• Kalshi, both public APIs on October 22: KXFEDDECISION-26OCT remains open, mutually exclusive, with a strike date of 2026-10-28T18:00:00Z and settlement source Federal Reserve (federalreserve.gov). All five markets — Cut >25bps, Cut 25bps, Hike 0bps, Hike 25bps, Hike >25bps — reported status active, a close time of 2026-10-28T17:59:00Z (1:59 PM EDT), and an expected expiration of 2026-10-28T18:05:00Z.
• Fifth-strike correction: the August 7 snapshot recorded the fifth market as KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-H50. In the October 22 recheck, both APIs list the fifth market as KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-H26 (subtitle “Hike >25bps”, custom strike Hike >25, created September 26, 2025), and a direct lookup of the H50 ticker returns not found. Both dated records are preserved; this recheck does not guess which record matched the live event in August. The live market page and its exact rules control.
• Dated price structure, not live odds: the API's dated last-price fields (market records updated September 30, 2026) showed 88¢ on Hike 0bps, 12¢ on Hike 25bps, and 1¢ on each of the other three strikes. Those numbers record the structure the API carried on October 22 — market-implied prices move, and this page does not forecast the decision.

Two August discrepancies persist into decision week. The C26 title still says “Cut rates by >25bps” while its rules text still reads “Cut of 25bps” without the greater-than sign, and the same stripped pattern appears in H26's rules text; the rules' own worked example (a 50-basis-point hike resolving the spaced form) indicates the spaced text denotes the greater-than strike, but this page still does not rewrite settlement language. The exact API's 17:59Z close and the generic terms' 1:55 PM ET last-trading time also still differ, so verify the cutoff on the live market page for any order.

What the Federal Reserve calendar establishes

The official FOMC calendar sets the October 27-28, 2026 meeting. The October meeting does not carry an asterisk, meaning no Summary of Economic Projections is scheduled. Only the March, June, September, and December 2026 meetings include SEP materials. The calendar was last updated July 29, 2026.

The FOMC typically announces its policy decision at 2:00 PM ET on the second day of a two-day meeting. The Federal Reserve publishes the policy statement and, for SEP meetings, the projection materials, on its website.

What the exact Kalshi event snapshot establishes

The August 7 official API response identified event ticker KXFEDDECISION-26OCT, titled "Fed decision in Oct 2026?" The record marked the event mutually exclusive and included five nested markets with status active:

• KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-C26 — Cut >25bps
• KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-C25 — Cut 25bps
• KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-H0 — Hike 0bps (Fed maintains rate)
• KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-H25 — Hike 25bps
• KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-H50 — Hike >25bps

Each nested market reported a close time of 2026-10-28T17:59:00Z and an expected expiration time of 2026-10-28T18:05:00Z. The settlement source is the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov).

Those are timestamped API facts, not promises that the event or fields will remain unchanged. Reopen the exact event and its live market pages before relying on them. The September employment situation, scheduled for October 2, is one of the data releases ahead of the meeting; see the September 2026 nonfarm payrolls verification.

Two official-source discrepancies to preserve

1. Closing time: The exact event API reported 17:59:00Z, or 1:59 PM EDT, while the generic FEDDECISION terms list 1:55 PM ET as the last trading time. The records are not identical, so this page does not select a universal cutoff.
2. One outcome's wording: Ticker KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-C26 has a title that says "Cut rates by >25bps", while the API's primary-rule text says "Cut of 25bps" and omits the greater-than sign. This page does not silently repair or independently interpret that mismatch.

When a generic document and an exact event record diverge, record the discrepancy and verify the selected market's live rules. Do not turn an editorial guess into settlement language.

How the October meeting differs from September and December

The October 2026 FOMC meeting is one of the four meetings in 2026 that does not include a Summary of Economic Projections. This means:

• No individual participant projections for real GDP growth, unemployment, PCE inflation, core PCE inflation, or the appropriate federal-funds-rate path.
• No Summary of Economic Projections dot plot or materials released alongside the policy statement.
• The policy statement is the primary post-meeting release.

Traders who follow Kalshi Fed decision markets should note that the absence of SEP materials does not change how Kalshi's contracts settle. The settlement source remains the Federal Reserve's policy decision, regardless of whether projections accompany it.

What happens if a scheduled meeting is canceled

According to the Kalshi event's rules, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, the strike for "Fed maintains rate" resolves to Yes and all others resolve to No. This provision applies to meetings after the May 2025 meeting. This is the event's stated rule, not this article's interpretation.

Live-market verification checklist

1. Event and market identity: Confirm the event ticker, selected market ticker, exact title, status, and mutually exclusive structure.
2. Exact rules: Read the selected market's full rules and named outcome verification source. Do not rely only on the API title.
3. Times: Recheck close time, expiration time, expected determination time, and any last-trading language on the live market page.
4. Wording conflict: If the C26 title and rule text still differ, preserve evidence and seek clarification from Kalshi rather than assuming which symbol was intended.
5. Execution: Inspect the current order book for the full intended size. This article contains no live quote or probability.
6. Fees: Apply the current fee schedule to the intended order rather than copying an old example.

Reproducible snapshot record

The repository source brief stores the exact API URL, checked fields, discrepancy notes, and the canonical response structure for the August 7 response. A later review can repeat the request, compare the fields, and document any change without overwriting what was observed here.

Frequently Asked Questions

When is the October 2026 Federal Reserve meeting?

The Federal Reserve calendar lists the FOMC meeting for October 27-28, 2026. The policy decision is announced on October 28. The October 22 recheck found the dates unchanged six days before the meeting.

Does the October 2026 FOMC meeting include a Summary of Economic Projections?

No. The October meeting does not carry an asterisk on the official FOMC calendar, so no Summary of Economic Projections is scheduled. Only the March, June, September, and December 2026 meetings include SEP materials. The October 22 recheck found the same no-asterisk listing on the live calendar.

Was an October 2026 Fed decision event present on Kalshi when this page was reviewed?

Yes. On August 7, 2026, Kalshi's official event API showed KXFEDDECISION-26OCT with five active, mutually exclusive markets, and the October 22 recheck found all five still active on both public endpoints. The fifth market is recorded there as KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-H26; the August snapshot had recorded H50. Status and exact rules can change, so recheck the live event before trading.

What is the trading cutoff for the October event?

The August 7 exact-event API snapshot reported 2026-10-28T17:59:00Z, while the generic FEDDECISION terms list 1:55 PM ET. The October 22 recheck found the same 17:59:00Z close on all five markets. Because the official records differ, verify the live market page and exact rules rather than relying on a universal cutoff.

Not financial advice. Prediction-market trading is speculative, and you can lose money. Do your own research.