Photo: Carol M. Highsmith, Library of Congress. Source (Wikimedia Commons). License: public domain.
The date is straightforward, but the contract calendar requires a closer look. The Q3 2026 GDP report is scheduled for Thursday, October 29, 2026, at 8:30 AM Eastern Time, while dated Kalshi metadata points to an expected release day of October 30. Traders should reconcile the official calendar with each market's exact rules rather than infer settlement timing from a ticker.
Primary sources checked: the Bureau of Economic Analysis release schedule, Kalshi's market site, Kalshi's market-rules guidance, and the CFTC's designated contract market information. The source snapshot date for this guide is August 23, 2026; the October 23 refresh and October 21 recheck below update it without changing the original facts.
This guide was refreshed on October 23, 2026, six days before the scheduled release, as the final pre-release verification of the market's structure. Nothing structural changed since the October 21 recheck, and that stability is itself the finding.
Six days out, the October 29 (BEA) versus October 30 (Kalshi close) discrepancy is still unreconciled on both official records. This guide does not predict whether BEA moves the release, Kalshi updates the close time, or the market trades past the print; the checklist below stays the operative verification path through release week.
This guide's calendar was rechecked on October 21, 2026, eight days before the scheduled release, against the live BEA schedule, Kalshi's public API, and the KXGDP contract terms PDF. Every dated fact above still holds, and the October 29 versus October 30 mismatch still exists one week out.
The discrepancy therefore persists into release week: BEA's scheduled release day is Thursday, October 29, while the event's dated metadata still closes trading on Friday, October 30 at 8:29 AM ET. If BEA prints on schedule, the market as currently configured would remain open after the data is public. This guide does not predict whether BEA moves the release, Kalshi updates the close time, or the market simply trades past the print; the checklist below stays the operative verification path. Public Law 119-103, verified in this project's September 25 source check, funds the federal government through December 11, 2026, so there is no adjacent shutdown-driven delay window for this release.
As of August 23, 2026, the BEA calendar lists the following release:
The advance estimate is the BEA's first of three scheduled estimates for the quarter. It is not the final third-quarter GDP figure. Subsequent releases can revise the reported growth rate as the agency receives more complete source data.
The BEA also schedules Personal Income and Outlays for September 2026 at 8:30 AM ET on October 29. That is a separate same-day publication. It should not be treated as part of the GDP release or as evidence that a corresponding Kalshi market exists.
The BEA schedule showed this three-stage publication sequence on August 23, 2026:
The live BEA schedule controls the publication calendar. BEA can revise its schedule, so October 29 should be treated as the currently published date, not an immutable deadline. On release morning, traders should also check the BEA news releases page for the actual report.
A dated Kalshi snapshot showed the KXGDP series, titled “US GDP growth,” in the Economics category. As of August 23, 2026, the snapshot included these open events:
For KXGDP-26OCT30, the snapshot displayed binary “Above” strikes at 0.0%, 0.5%, 1.0%, 1.5%, 2.0%, 2.5%, 3.0%, 3.5%, and 4.0%. The primary rule stated that a market resolves based on whether “real GDP (as measured by the BEA's seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than [strike].”
That phrasing makes two checks important. First, “more than” is different from “at least.” Second, the rule points to the advance estimate rather than a later revision. Each strike has its own contract, so traders should open the individual market and read its complete terms.
Availability beyond the dated snapshot is not guaranteed. Current availability and market information must come directly from Kalshi. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, its contracts are USD-settled, and identity verification is required.
There was a clear dated discrepancy on August 23, 2026:
The snapshot's secondary rules said the market would close at 8:29 AM on the expected release day. They also described expiration as the first 10:00 AM following the release of Q3 2026 data, or three months after the expected date. The Expiration Value was defined as the one-decimal value published by BEA.
This guide does not assume which date Kalshi will ultimately use. A ticker is not a substitute for the contract text, and an external calendar does not override a market's rules. Kalshi explains that each market has its own outcome criteria and verification source. Traders should recheck the live event page, individual strike rules, close time, and settlement language before entering an order.
Use this static checklist before relying on the Q3 2026 GDP report calendar:
This page is not a live odds board. For dated market notes and future checklist updates, readers can follow the @Kalshi_market channel.
The BEA schedule listed the Q3 2026 GDP advance estimate for Thursday, October 29, 2026, at 8:30 AM Eastern Time, as checked on August 23, 2026; the October 21 recheck and the October 23 refresh found the date unchanged six days before release. Because BEA can revise its calendar, readers should verify the date on the agency's live release schedule on release morning.
No. October 29 is scheduled for the advance estimate, which is the first of three estimates. The second estimate is scheduled for November 25, and the third estimate is scheduled for December 23; both follow-up dates were reconfirmed on BEA's live schedule on October 21 and again on October 23, 2026. A Kalshi contract may specify one particular estimate, so later revisions do not automatically determine that contract's result.
In the October 21, 2026 recheck and the October 23, 2026 refresh, KXGDP-26OCT30, titled “US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?”, remained open with all nine “Above” strike markets active, from 0.0% through 4.0%, and its listed settlement source was the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Current availability and exact rules must be verified directly on Kalshi.
The August 23 snapshot encoded October 30 in the event ticker and listed an 8:29 AM ET close that day, while BEA's live schedule listed the advance estimate for October 29. The October 21 recheck and the October 23 refresh found the mismatch still in place: all nine markets still carry the October 30, 8:29 AM ET close, while BEA still schedules the release for October 29 at 8:30 AM ET. The contract terms define the last trading day as the day of the scheduled data release and point to BEA's schedule, so traders should not guess which side will change and should rely on the live Kalshi contract rules for that market.
Not financial advice. Prediction-market trading is speculative, and you can lose money. Do your own research.