Compare › Kalshi vs Polymarket odds
Snapshot October 25, 2026 at 01:54 UTC · refreshed twice a day
On 13 events listed on both exchanges, Kalshi and Polymarket prices were 1.3 points apart on average per outcome (October 25, 2026 at 01:54 UTC). The widest gap: Which party wins the 2028 presidential election, Democrats at 60% on Kalshi and 66% on Polymarket. Check both order books and both fees before acting on a gap.
Kalshi event KXFEDDECISION-26OCT
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Kalshi minus Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| No change | 92% | 94% | -2.0 pts |
| Hike 25 bp | 6.5% | 4.5% | +2.0 pts |
| Cut 50 bp or more | 1.0% | <1% | +0.9 pts |
| Cut 25 bp | 1.0% | <1% | +0.9 pts |
| Hike 50 bp or more | 1.0% | <1% | +0.8 pts |
Kalshi event KXFEDDECISION-26DEC
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Kalshi minus Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 25 bp | 74% | 76% | -3.0 pts |
| No change | 24% | 20% | +4.0 pts |
| Hike 50 bp or more | 4.5% | 2.6% | +1.8 pts |
| Cut 25 bp | 1.5% | 0.7% | +0.9 pts |
| Cut 50 bp or more | 1.0% | <1% | +0.6 pts |
Kalshi event CONTROLH-2026
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Kalshi minus Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 90% | 92% | -1.3 pts |
| Republicans | 9.4% | 8.5% | +0.9 pts |
Kalshi event CONTROLS-2026
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Kalshi minus Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 64% | 67% | -2.5 pts |
| Republicans | 36% | 34% | +3.0 pts |
Kalshi event KXPRESPARTY-2028
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Kalshi minus Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 60% | 66% | -6.0 pts |
| Republicans | 40% | 34% | +6.0 pts |
Kalshi event KXBRPRES-26
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Kalshi minus Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 80% | 82% | -1.8 pts |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 18% | 18% | 0 pts |
Kalshi event KXSB-27
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Kalshi minus Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 16% | 16% | +0.5 pts |
| Buffalo Bills | 11% | 12% | -1.5 pts |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 10% | 11% | -0.8 pts |
| Baltimore Ravens | 6.5% | 6.5% | +0.1 pts |
| Chicago Bears | 6.5% | 5.9% | +0.6 pts |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 6.5% | 6.0% | +0.5 pts |
| Los Angeles Rams | 6.5% | 6.5% | 0 pts |
| Seattle Seahawks | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0 pts |
| Minnesota Vikings | 4.5% | 3.9% | +0.6 pts |
| Denver Broncos | 4.0% | 3.8% | +0.3 pts |
Kalshi event KXMLB-26
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Kalshi minus Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | 66% | 68% | -1.3 pts |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 35% | 32% | +3.2 pts |
Kalshi event KXNBA-27
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Kalshi minus Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 24% | 24% | +1.0 pts |
| San Antonio Spurs | 20% | 20% | +1.0 pts |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 12% | 11% | +0.8 pts |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 7.5% | 5.3% | +2.1 pts |
| New York Knicks | 7.5% | 6.5% | +1.0 pts |
| Boston Celtics | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0 pts |
| Toronto Raptors | 4.5% | 4.5% | +0.1 pts |
| Detroit Pistons | 2.5% | 3.5% | -1.0 pts |
| Houston Rockets | 3.5% | 3.2% | +0.3 pts |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 3.5% | 2.9% | +0.7 pts |
Kalshi event KXNHL-27
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Kalshi minus Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Edmonton Oilers | 9.5% | 12% | -2.0 pts |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 9.5% | 10% | -1.0 pts |
| Colorado Avalanche | 10% | 10% | 0 pts |
| Florida Panthers | 9.5% | 7.5% | +2.0 pts |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 7.5% | 5.5% | +2.0 pts |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 5.5% | 7.5% | -2.0 pts |
| Minnesota Wild | 6.5% | 5.1% | +1.4 pts |
| New Jersey Devils | 6.5% | 4.7% | +1.9 pts |
| Boston Bruins | 5.5% | 2.5% | +3.0 pts |
| Dallas Stars | 5.0% | 5.5% | -0.5 pts |
Kalshi event KXUCL-27
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Kalshi minus Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 22% | 24% | -1.0 pts |
| Arsenal | 14% | 14% | 0 pts |
| Bayern Munich | 14% | 14% | 0 pts |
| Real Madrid | 10% | 10% | 0 pts |
| Manchester City | 6.5% | 7.5% | -1.0 pts |
| Liverpool | 3.5% | 4.5% | -1.0 pts |
| Atlético Madrid | 1.5% | 2.4% | -0.9 pts |
| Como | 2.0% | 0.9% | +1.1 pts |
| Inter Milan | 1.5% | 1.7% | -0.2 pts |
| Aston Villa | 1.5% | 1.4% | +0.1 pts |
Kalshi event KXOAIANTH-40
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Kalshi minus Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 93% | 95% | -2.0 pts |
| OpenAI | 6.5% | 5.0% | +1.6 pts |
Kalshi event KXRECSSNBER-26
The rules differ: Polymarket resolves Yes on two negative GDP quarters or an NBER recession call; Kalshi counts only two consecutive negative GDP quarters.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Kalshi minus Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3.5% | 8.0% | -4.5 pts |
Prices are bid/ask midpoints on each exchange at the same moment, before fees. Data: Polymarket View's Kalshi comparison (CC BY 4.0), a sister site; how big the gaps get over time: price-gap study. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
A Kalshi taker order pays round up(0.07 x C x P x (1 - P)): $1.75 on 100 contracts at 50 cents, see the Kalshi fee calculator. Polymarket charges its own fee by market category. Add both spreads and the months your money sits until the event settles, and most gaps of a few points are gone. How good each exchange's prices are over time: how accurate Kalshi is.
They are separate order books with different traders, fees and access rules, and their contracts can resolve on slightly different wording, so prices drift apart; traders who buy on one and sell on the other pull them back together.
Only when the gap is bigger than the costs: Kalshi's taker fee, Polymarket's fee on that market, the spread on both books and the capital tied up until the event resolves. Most gaps on this page are a few points, which those costs usually wipe out.
Twice a day, from the matched-event snapshot Polymarket View publishes; both prices on a row are bid/ask midpoints taken at the same moment.