Photo: Erica Fischer. Source (Openverse). License: CC BY 2.0.
The October 2026 jobs report is scheduled for Friday, November 6, at 8:30 a.m. EST, or 13:30 UTC, not October 2. Before considering a payrolls contract, check three separate items: the reference month, the trading cutoff, and the settlement terms. The October 1 source snapshot also shows a Kalshi source-link inconsistency that deserves attention.
Source snapshot: October 1, 2026 (05:31-05:34 UTC); pre-release recheck October 20, 2026 (05:32-05:34 UTC). This is a static schedule-and-verification guide, not a forecast or live prices page. The October 20 recheck re-read the BLS November schedule and the exact Kalshi event on both public API endpoints; what changed and what did not is recorded in the recheck section below.
A pre-release recheck on October 20, 2026 (05:32–05:34 UTC) re-read the primary sources 17 days before the scheduled release. The BLS November schedule still lists the Employment Situation for October 2026 on Friday, November 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET, and the schedule page itself carries a “Last Modified Date” of February 18, 2026 — no change since publication. The release now sits inside a full macro week: JOLTS for September on Tuesday, November 3 (10:00 a.m.), Productivity and Costs for the third quarter on Thursday, November 5 (8:30 a.m.), the jobs report Friday, November 6 (8:30 a.m.), then the October CPI and Real Earnings on Tuesday, November 10 (8:30 a.m.).
On the Kalshi side, the exact event KXPAYROLLS-26OCT (“Jobs numbers in October 2026?”) was read on both public API endpoints, and both returned the same picture: 13 markets, all active, on the same threshold ladder observed October 1 — above −25,000, 0, 10,000, 20,000, 30,000, 40,000, 50,000, 60,000, 70,000, 80,000, 90,000, 100,000, and 125,000. Every market carried the same close time, 2026-11-06T13:29:00Z (8:29 a.m. EST), and the same expected expiration, 15:00 UTC (10:00 a.m. EST). The strict “above” rule wording is unchanged; the lowest-threshold market, for example, resolves Yes only if the increase is “above -25000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of October 2026.”
Last-traded prices in that dated snapshot, ordered from the above −25,000 contract to the above 125,000 contract, were 94¢, 85¢, 74¢, 71¢, 65¢, 61¢, 58¢, 53¢, 51¢, 42¢, 35¢, 28¢, and 13¢. These are recorded as dated observations of market structure, not forecasts, fair-value claims, or recommendations; prices move.
Two context facts changed since publication. First, the September reference-month report was released October 2: nonfarm payroll employment rose by 29,000 and the unemployment rate was 4.2 percent (BLS USDL-26-1549 result recheck). That is the completed prior month, not an October forecast. Second, federal funding runs through December 11, 2026 under Public Law 119-103, so unlike the October 2 release — which sat one day after the former October 1 funding deadline — the November 6 release has no adjacent funding cliff (December 11 funding checks).
The one open verification item is unchanged: the KXPAYROLLS series settlement source still names BLS while linking to the Producer Price Index news-release URL, exactly as recorded October 1. The checklist below stands.
Both BLS schedule views identify November 6 as the release date for October employment data. They are two views from the same official publisher, not independent confirmations. BLS calendars can change.
The report scheduled for October 2 covers September. The separate September payrolls verification guide addresses that release. October data follows on November 6.
The UTC offset also changes. October 2 uses EDT, making 8:30 a.m. Eastern equal to 12:30 UTC. November 6 uses EST, making the same local release time 13:30 UTC. Do not carry the summer offset forward.
Inflation has a different calendar: the October CPI release is scheduled for November 10, not November 6.
The exact event, KXPAYROLLS-26OCT, was titled “Jobs numbers in October 2026?” Its nested and separate market records showed 13 active threshold contracts on October 1, and the October 20 recheck found the same 13 still active. Neither observation guarantees continuing availability.
For KXPAYROLLS-26OCT-T50000, the primary rule stated:
“If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 50000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.”
BLS distinguishes payroll jobs from employed people. The establishment survey counts nonfarm wage-and-salary jobs, including two jobs held by one person separately. The household survey supplies employed-person and unemployment measures. These series are not interchangeable.
The PAYROLLS terms say: “Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.” That is not equivalent to “first print always wins.”
The PDF also contains provisions for earlier expiration, a no-data fallback to the last available month by expiration, and market review. Consult the full terms rather than treating the short API description as exhaustive. The payrolls market mechanics guide provides broader background.
On October 1, the exact October event identified BLS as its settlement source and linked to the Employment Situation release. Its rules specified total nonfarm payroll employment.
However, the KXPAYROLLS series metadata labeled its source BLS while linking to a Producer Price Index endpoint. That is a genuine source-link inconsistency, not a reason to silently substitute one URL for another. The October 20 recheck found the series metadata unchanged: the settlement source still names BLS while linking to the PPI endpoint, so the mismatch had not been corrected as of that read.
This guide does not establish which API field legally controls or claim the discrepancy is resolved. Compare the event, series metadata, and full contract terms. Seek clarification from Kalshi if the inconsistency remains. A series-only source check is insufficient.
The Employment Situation URL is also a rolling page. Before November 6, its contents need not be October’s report.
This guide is educational, not financial, legal, or tax advice. Verify current rules and access requirements directly with Kalshi before acting.
October 1, 2026, 05:31-05:34 UTC. Direct sources behind this snapshot:
October 20, 2026, 05:32-05:34 UTC (pre-release recheck). Direct sources behind the recheck section:
BLS schedules it for Friday, November 6, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. EST, equivalent to 13:30 UTC. It covers October employment data. The October 2 release covers September instead. The November schedule page rechecked on October 20 still lists November 6 at 8:30 a.m. and carries a February 18, 2026 last-modified date. Check the official calendar again before release day because the schedule can change.
Yes, in both the October 1 snapshot and the October 20 recheck. All 13 active contracts carried the same close time, 8:29 a.m. EST on November 6, one minute before the scheduled BLS release, and the same expected expiration, 10:00 a.m. EST. These are different milestones, and expected expiration does not guarantee payout timing.
The October 1 evidence shows that mismatch, and the October 20 recheck found it still present: the series settlement source names BLS but links to the PPI endpoint, while the October event links to Employment Situation and specifies payroll employment. Compare the full terms and seek Kalshi clarification if the inconsistency remains unresolved.
No. The checked source material does not verify an October payrolls forecast, consensus estimate, or reported result. The October 20 snapshot records dated last-traded prices for structure only; they are observations, not predictions. This guide documents the scheduled release, observed contract timing, and source checks rather than predicting the number.
Not financial advice. Prediction-market trading is speculative, and you can lose money. Do your own research.