What will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season? Kalshi Odds
Snapshot October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC · Category: Climate and Weather · Event KXRONI-27AUG
As of October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, the leading outcome is 2.5°C to 2.9°C at 62%, followed by At least 3.0°C at 30%, 2.0°C to 2.4°C at 4.5%. 137.2K contracts have traded, 51 in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ 2.5°C to 2.9°C ■ At least 3.0°C ■ 2.0°C to 2.4°C · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season is below 1.5°C, then the market resolves to Yes. The peak RONI value is determined solely from values published in the NOAA CPC official RONI table that are designated as final (non-preliminary). For La Niña contracts, the peak RONI value refers to the single most negative (i.e., lowest) RONI value. The latest Expiration Date shall be one week after the Source Agency publishes the final RONI value for the last three-month period falling within the time period. However, if the peak RONI value necessary to determine the Market Outcome can be conclusively established prior to that date (e.g., the season has formally ended and all relevant values are final), expiration may be moved to an earlier date and time.”
What are the Kalshi odds for What will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season?
As of October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, the leading outcome is 2.5°C to 2.9°C at 62%, followed by At least 3.0°C at 30%, 2.0°C to 2.4°C at 4.5%. 137.2K contracts have traded, 51 in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the What will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season market close?
The listed close date is August 15, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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What will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 25). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/what-will-the-peak-roni-value-be-during-the-2026-27-el-ni-o-season/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketswhatwillthepeakronivaluebeduringthe202627elnioseason, title = {What will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-25 11:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/what-will-the-peak-roni-value-be-during-the-2026-27-el-ni-o-season/}}
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