Snapshot October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC · Category: Elections · Event KXMIDTERMMOV-MISEND
As of October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, the leading outcome is El-Sayed, 1+ pts at 68%, followed by El-Sayed, 2+ pts at 56%, El-Sayed, 3+ pts at 46%. 536.1K contracts have traded, 11.1K in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ El-Sayed, 1+ pts ■ El-Sayed, 2+ pts ■ El-Sayed, 3+ pts · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple …”
What are the Kalshi odds for Michigan Senate margin of victory?
As of October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, the leading outcome is El-Sayed, 1+ pts at 68%, followed by El-Sayed, 2+ pts at 56%, El-Sayed, 3+ pts at 46%. 536.1K contracts have traded, 11.1K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the Michigan Senate margin of victory market close?
The listed close date is November 3, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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<p><a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/michigan-senate-margin-of-victory/">Michigan Senate margin of victory odds</a> via <a href="https://kalshiview.com/">Kalshi View</a></p>
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Michigan Senate margin of victory: Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 25). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/michigan-senate-margin-of-victory/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketsmichigansenatemarginofvictory, title = {Michigan Senate margin of victory: Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-25 11:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/michigan-senate-margin-of-victory/}}
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