Kalshi odds today › 2026 midterms
Snapshot October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC · election day November 3, 2026 · refreshed twice a day
As of October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, 9 days before the November 3, 2026 elections, Kalshi gives the Democratic Party 62% to win the Senate and the Democratic Party 91% to win the House. The closest Senate races: Iowa (Ashley Hinson 58%); Kansas (Roger Marshall 60%); Maine (Troy Jackson 60%).
| Market | Favourite | Chance | Runner-up |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | Democratic Party | 62% | Republican Party 36% |
| House | Democratic Party | 91% | Republican Party 9.7% |
| Same party in both | Yes | 75% | - |
| State | Favourite | Chance | Runner-up | Leading candidate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | Ashley Hinson | 58% | Josh Turek 42% | - |
| Kansas | Roger Marshall | 60% | Adam Hamilton 40% | - |
| Maine | Troy Jackson | 60% | Susan Collins 40% | - |
| Texas | James Talarico | 64% | Ken Paxton 36% | - |
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown | 68% | Jon Husted 32% | - |
| Michigan | Abdul El-Sayed | 68% | Mike Rogers 32% | - |
| Alaska | Democratic party | 75% | Republican party 24% | Mary Peltola 74% |
| Nebraska | Pete Ricketts | 76% | Dan Osborn 24% | - |
| South Carolina | Darline Graham | 80% | Annie Andrews 20% | - |
| Minnesota | Peggy Flanagan | 82% | Michele Tafoya 18% | - |
| Mississippi | Cindy Hyde-Smith | 88% | Scott Colom 12% | - |
| Florida | Ashley Moody | 90% | Angie Nixon 11% | - |
| New Hampshire | Chris Pappas | 90% | John E. Sununu 11% | - |
| Montana | Kurt Alme | 91% | Seth Bodnar 8.3% | - |
| Louisiana | Julia Letlow | 92% | Jamie Davis 7.8% | - |
| Arkansas | Tom Cotton | 94% | Hallie Shoffner 6.0% | - |
| Idaho | Jim Risch | 95% | Todd Achilles 4.5% | - |
| South Dakota | Mike Rounds | 95% | Brian Bengs 4.5% | - |
| Georgia | Jon Ossoff | 96% | Mike Collins 4.8% | - |
| Tennessee | Bill Hagerty | 96% | Marquita Bradshaw 3.9% | - |
| North Carolina | Roy Cooper | 96% | Michael Whatley 3.5% | - |
| Kentucky | Andy Barr | 97% | Charles Booker 3.1% | - |
| New Mexico | Ben Ray Luján | 97% | Larry E. Marker 3.1% | - |
| Oklahoma | Kevin Hern | 97% | N’Kiyla Thomas 2.9% | - |
| New Jersey | Cory Booker | 97% | Justin Murphy 2.8% | - |
| West Virginia | Shelley Moore Capito | 98% | Rachel Fetty Anderson 2.5% | - |
| Delaware | Chris Coons | 98% | Michael Katz 2.4% | - |
| Illinois | Juliana Stratton | 98% | Don Tracy 2.1% | - |
| Massachusetts | Ed Markey | 98% | John Deaton 1.8% | - |
| Alabama | Barry Moore | 98% | Everett Wess 1.6% | - |
| Oregon | Jeff Merkley | 98% | David Brock Smith 1.4% | - |
| Rhode Island | Jack Reed | 99% | Raymond McKay 1.4% | - |
| Virginia | Mark Warner | 99% | Bert Mizusawa 1.2% | - |
| Colorado | John Hickenlooper | 99% | Mark Baisley 1.2% | - |
| Wyoming | Harriet Hageman | 99% | James Byrd 0.9% | - |
| State | Favourite | Chance | Runner-up | Leading candidate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Mariana Islands | Blas “BJ” Attao | 50% | Ralph Torres 48% | - |
| Georgia | Keisha Lance Bottoms | 60% | Rick Jackson 40% | - |
| Texas | Greg Abbott | 66% | Gina Hinojosa 34% | - |
| Guam | Tony Ada | 65% | Therese Terlaje 31% | - |
| Nevada | Aaron Ford | 68% | Joe Lombardo 32% | - |
| Vermont | Phil Scott | 76% | Amanda Janoo 24% | - |
| Wisconsin | David Crowley | 80% | Tom Tiffany 22% | - |
| Oregon | Tina Kotek | 80% | Christine Drazan 20% | - |
| Ohio | Amy Acton | 80% | Vivek Ramaswamy 20% | - |
| Florida | Byron Donalds | 82% | David Jolly 18% | - |
| Nebraska | Jim Pillen | 86% | Lynne Walz 15% | - |
| Iowa | Rob Sand | 86% | Zach Lahn 15% | - |
| Alaska | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 86% | Bernadette Wilson 12% | - |
| Oklahoma | Mike Mazzei | 90% | Cyndi Munson 12% | - |
| Arizona | Katie Hobbs | 90% | Andy Biggs 9.9% | - |
| New Mexico | Deb Haaland | 93% | Greggory D. Hull 6.2% | - |
| U.S. Virgin Islands | Stacey Plaskett | 92% | Adlah “Foncie” Donastorg 4.0% | - |
| Michigan | Jocelyn Benson | 94% | John James 6.2% | - |
| Alabama | Tommy Tuberville | 94% | Doug Jones 5.6% | - |
| New York | Kathy Hochul | 95% | Bruce Blakeman 5.9% | - |
| South Carolina | Alan Wilson | 94% | Jermaine Johnson 5.1% | - |
| Tennessee | Marsha Blackburn | 94% | Jerri Green 4.5% | - |
| Massachusetts | Maura Healey | 95% | Mike Minogue 4.9% | - |
| Minnesota | Amy Klobuchar | 95% | Lisa Demuth 4.8% | - |
| Maine | Hannah Pingree | 96% | Robert Charles 4.7% | - |
| Rhode Island | Helena Foulkes | 96% | Ken Block 4.5% | - |
| California | Xavier Becerra | 97% | Steve Hilton 3.5% | - |
| Colorado | Phil Weiser | 97% | Victor Marx 3.3% | - |
| Illinois | JB Pritzker | 97% | Darren Bailey 3.5% | - |
| Connecticut | Ned Lamont | 97% | Ryan Fazio 3.3% | - |
| Idaho | Brad Little | 97% | Terri Pickens 3.3% | - |
| Maryland | Wes Moore | 97% | Dan Cox 2.8% | - |
| Pennsylvania | Josh Shapiro | 97% | Stacy Garrity 2.7% | - |
| Arkansas | Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 97% | Fred Love 1.9% | - |
| South Dakota | Larry Rhoden | 97% | Dan Ahlers 2.5% | - |
| Hawaii | Josh Green | 98% | Gary Cordery 2.1% | - |
| Wyoming | Eric Barlow | 98% | Kenneth Casner 2.1% | - |
Out of 426 House districts with an open Kalshi market.
| District | Favourite | Chance | Runner-up | Leading candidate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KY-06 | Ralph Alvarado | 54% | Zach Dembo 46% | - |
| MT-01 | Aaron Flint | 56% | Sam Forstag 46% | - |
| WI-01 | Bryan Steil | 55% | Mitchell Berman 44% | - |
| ME-02 | Paul LePage | 56% | Matt Dunlap 44% | - |
| TX-23 | Brandon Herrera | 58% | Katy Padilla Stout 40% | - |
| PA-01 | Brian Fitzpatrick | 60% | Bob Harvie 40% | - |
| VA-01 | Shannon Taylor | 60% | Rob Wittman 40% | - |
| NC-13 | Brad Knott | 58% | Paul Barringer 36% | - |
| NY-17 | Cait Conley | 62% | Mike Lawler 40% | - |
| FL-22 | Pia Dandiya | 62% | Casey Askar 40% | - |
| MI-04 | Sean McCann | 62% | Bill Huizenga 38% | - |
| NV-02 | David Flippo | 62% | Teresa Benitez-Thompson 38% | - |
| OH-15 | Mike Carey | 62% | Don Leonard 38% | - |
| SC-01 | Jenny Costa Honeycutt | 62% | Nancy S. Lacore 38% | - |
| MO-02 | Ann Wagner | 64% | Fred Wellman 36% | - |
| MN-01 | Brad Finstad | 66% | Jake Johnson 34% | - |
| NY-21 | Anthony Constantino | 66% | Blake Gendebien 34% | - |
| FL-14 | Kathy Castor | 66% | Mike Beltran 34% | - |
| FL-27 | Maria Elvira Salazar | 66% | Eliott Rodriguez 34% | - |
| AZ-02 | Eli Crane | 68% | Jonathan Nez 34% | - |
| NC-03 | Greg Murphy | 68% | Raymond Smith Jr. 34% | - |
| VA-05 | John McGuire | 68% | Tom Perriello 32% | - |
| CO-03 | Jeff Hurd | 68% | Dwayne Romero 32% | - |
| TX-35 | Johnny C. Garcia | 68% | Carlos De La Cruz 32% | - |
| AL-02 | Rhett Marques | 70% | Shomari Figures 32% | - |
| CO-05 | Jeff Crank | 70% | Jessica Killin 32% | - |
| NC-09 | Richard Hudson | 70% | Richard Ojeda 30% | - |
| FL-09 | Dan Green | 70% | Darren Soto 30% | - |
| OH-10 | Mike Turner | 70% | Kristina Knickerbocker 30% | - |
| CO-04 | Lauren Boebert | 72% | Eileen Laubacher 30% | - |
Favourite: the race's winner market (Kalshi labels most of them with the nominees' names); leading candidate comes from Kalshi's separate candidate market where the winner market is labelled by party. Closest first means the smallest gap between the favourite and the runner-up. Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Every race is its own market with its own rules. Kalshi's Texas Senate party market, for example, resolves Yes for the party whose representative is sworn in as senator for the term beginning in 2027, and it is eligible for accelerated determination once a consensus of media organizations projects the winner. Control markets follow the same idea for each chamber. Read the full rules on Kalshi before trading.
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APA
2026 midterms on Kalshi. (2026, October 25). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/midterms-2026/
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@misc{kalshiview2026marketsmidterms2026, title = {2026 midterms on Kalshi}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-25 11:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/midterms-2026/}}HTML credit
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the Democratic Party 62% to win the Senate and the Democratic Party 91% to win the House. The closest Senate races: Iowa (Ashley Hinson 58%); Kansas (Roger Marshall 60%); Maine (Troy Jackson 60%).
The table lists every 2026 Senate race by the gap between the favourite and the runner-up, closest first: Iowa (Ashley Hinson 58%), Kansas (Roger Marshall 60%), Maine (Troy Jackson 60%), Texas (James Talarico 64%), Ohio (Sherrod Brown 68%).
Each race has its own rules. Kalshi's Texas Senate party market, for example, resolves Yes for the party whose representative is sworn in as senator for the term beginning in 2027, and is eligible for accelerated determination once a consensus of media organizations projects the winner. Read the rules of the market you trade.
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