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Oscar nominees: Best Director: Kalshi Odds

Snapshot October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC · Category: Entertainment · Event KXOSCARNOMDIR-27

As of October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Christopher Nolan at 97%, followed by Javier Calvo at 88%, Greta Gerwig at 85%. 132.7K contracts have traded, 3.5K in the last 24 hours.

Current odds

OutcomeChance24h changeVolumeOpen interest
Christopher Nolan97%
·12.3K3.9K
Javier Calvo88%
·3.3K2.3K
Greta Gerwig85%
·2.4K1.5K
Martin McDonagh71%
-5 pts12.1K5.8K
Nathan Fielder64%
-3 pts16.1K12.4K
Denis Villeneuve57%
-2 pts11.8K4.7K
Olivia Wilde51%
+5 pts13.6K7.4K
Ryusuke Hamaguchi33%
-1 pts2.6K1.9K
Cristian Mungiu28%
·4.7K2.5K
Jesse Eisenberg24%
·6.6K2.2K
Phil Lord12%
·3.6K2.9K
Curry Barker11%
+1 pts8.6K5.5K
Alejandro González Iñárritu11%
-1 pts9.9K4.9K
Mike Leigh10%
·1.2K1.1K
Christopher Miller9.0%
·2.0K1.1K
Paweł Pawlikowski8.0%
·1.3K532
David Fincher7.5%
·2.9K1.1K
Tony Gilroy7.5%
·1.8K845
Steven Spielberg6.5%
·8.4K4.1K
Joel Coen4.5%
·2.7K1.0K

7 lower-priced outcomes are in the JSON data.

Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.

Last 30 days

0%25%50%75%100%Sep 26Oct 24

■ Christopher Nolan ■ Javier Calvo ■ Greta Gerwig · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data

How this market settles

Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:

“If Phil Lord has been nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. The 99th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.”

Read the full rules and trade on Kalshi: open this market on Kalshi. How settlement works in general: Kalshi settlement guide. Costs: Kalshi fees, the fee calculator, the payout calculator and the APY calculator.

Related Entertainment markets

More on this topic: Oscars odds on Kalshi

Frequently asked questions

What are the Kalshi odds for Oscar nominees: Best Director?

As of October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Christopher Nolan at 97%, followed by Javier Calvo at 88%, Greta Gerwig at 85%. 132.7K contracts have traded, 3.5K in the last 24 hours.

How are these Kalshi odds calculated?

Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.

When does the Oscar nominees: Best Director market close?

The listed close date is December 31, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.

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Free JSON

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APA

Oscar nominees: Best Director: Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 25). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/oscar-nominees-best-director/

BibTeX

@misc{kalshiview2026marketsoscarnomineesbestdirector, title = {Oscar nominees: Best Director: Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-25 11:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/oscar-nominees-best-director/}}

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