Who will be Israeli national security minister after the election? Kalshi Odds
Snapshot October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC · Category: Elections · Event KXISRNATSECMIN-26OCT27
As of October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Itamar Ben-Gvir at 16%, followed by Yitzhak Wasserlauf at 14%, Yoram Cohen at 12%. 81.4K contracts have traded, 309 in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ Itamar Ben-Gvir ■ Yitzhak Wasserlauf ■ Yoram Cohen · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If Amichai Eliyahu formally takes office as Minister of National Security as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Only the first person to formally take office as Minister of National Security in the government formed after the 2026 Israeli legislative election, when it takes office or within 30 days after its first ministers are appointed, counts. An incumbent reappointed to the post counts; later reshuffles, rotations and appointments do not. Nominations, coalition agreements and announcements do not count, nor do acting, caretaker or interim service or a head of government holding the portfolio only by default while it is unassigned. If the ministry is renamed or restructured, such as back to the Ministry of Public Security, the minister of a successor ministry with substantially the …”
What are the Kalshi odds for Who will be Israeli national security minister after the election?
As of October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Itamar Ben-Gvir at 16%, followed by Yitzhak Wasserlauf at 14%, Yoram Cohen at 12%. 81.4K contracts have traded, 309 in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the Who will be Israeli national security minister after the election market close?
The listed close date is October 27, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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Who will be Israeli national security minister after the election? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 25). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/who-will-be-israeli-national-security-minister-after-the-election/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketswhowillbeisraelinationalsecurityministeraftertheelection, title = {Who will be Israeli national security minister after the election? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-25 11:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/who-will-be-israeli-national-security-minister-after-the-election/}}
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