Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist? Kalshi Odds
Snapshot October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC · Category: Science and Technology · Event KXALIENS-27
As of October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Before Jan 20, 2029 at 22%, followed by Before Jan 1, 2028 at 14%, Before Jan 1, 2027 at 4.5%. 37.2M contracts have traded, 33.6K in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ Before Jan 20, 2029 ■ Before Jan 1, 2028 ■ Before Jan 1, 2027 · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President's Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP.”
What are the Kalshi odds for Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
As of October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Before Jan 20, 2029 at 22%, followed by Before Jan 1, 2028 at 14%, Before Jan 1, 2027 at 4.5%. 37.2M contracts have traded, 33.6K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist market close?
The listed close dates range from November 1, 2026 to January 20, 2029. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 25). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/will-the-u-s-confirm-that-aliens-exist/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketswilltheusconfirmthataliensexist, title = {Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-25 11:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/will-the-u-s-confirm-that-aliens-exist/}}
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