Next French presidential election: 1st place (1st round): Kalshi Odds
Snapshot October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC · Category: Elections · Event KXFRPRES1R1ST-27-1
As of October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Marine Le Pen at 82%, followed by Jordan Bardella at 6.5%, Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 3.0%. 68.0K contracts have traded, 198 in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ Marine Le Pen ■ Jordan Bardella ■ Jean-Luc Mélenchon · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If Marine Le Pen finishes in 1st place in the first round of the next French presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on the number of votes each candidate receives in the first round, as proclaimed by the Constitutional Council, whether or not a second round is held and regardless of who advances to or wins it. In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities). If a candidate not listed on this event finishes 1st, every market on this event resolves NO. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the ballot list is published but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received.”
What are the Kalshi odds for Next French presidential election: 1st place (1st round)?
As of October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Marine Le Pen at 82%, followed by Jordan Bardella at 6.5%, Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 3.0%. 68.0K contracts have traded, 198 in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the Next French presidential election: 1st place (1st round) market close?
The listed close date is April 18, 2028. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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Next French presidential election: 1st place (1st round): Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 25). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/next-french-presidential-election-1st-place-1st-round/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketsnextfrenchpresidentialelection1stplace1stround, title = {Next French presidential election: 1st place (1st round): Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-25 11:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/next-french-presidential-election-1st-place-1st-round/}}
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