When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Kalshi Odds
Snapshot October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC · Category: Politics · Event KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17
As of October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Before Jan 1, 2029 at 60%, followed by Before Jul 1, 2028 at 56%, Before Jan 1, 2028 at 48%. 18.0M contracts have traded, 34.4K in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ Before Jan 1, 2029 ■ Before Jul 1, 2028 ■ Before Jan 1, 2028 · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before November 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.”
What are the Kalshi odds for When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
As of October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Before Jan 1, 2029 at 60%, followed by Before Jul 1, 2028 at 56%, Before Jan 1, 2028 at 48%. 18.0M contracts have traded, 34.4K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal market close?
The listed close dates range from November 3, 2026 to January 1, 2029. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 25). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/when-will-traffic-at-the-strait-of-hormuz-return-to-normal/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketswhenwilltrafficatthestraitofhormuzreturntonormal, title = {When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-25 11:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/when-will-traffic-at-the-strait-of-hormuz-return-to-normal/}}
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