2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot): Kalshi Odds
Snapshot October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC · Category: Politics · Event KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03
As of October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Democrats, 8 to 10% at 26%, followed by Democrats, 10 to 12% at 24%, Democrats, 6 to 8% at 15%. 3.3M contracts have traded, 37.9K in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ Democrats, 8 to 10% ■ Democrats, 10 to 12% ■ Democrats, 6 to 8% · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between -100 and 0 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election. The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, …”
What are the Kalshi odds for 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)?
As of October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Democrats, 8 to 10% at 26%, followed by Democrats, 10 to 12% at 24%, Democrats, 6 to 8% at 15%. 3.3M contracts have traded, 37.9K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) market close?
The listed close date is November 3, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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<p><a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/2026-midterms-house-popular-vote-margin-of-victory-generic-ballot/">2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) odds</a> via <a href="https://kalshiview.com/">Kalshi View</a></p>
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2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot): Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 25). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/2026-midterms-house-popular-vote-margin-of-victory-generic-ballot/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026markets2026midtermshousepopularvotemarginofvictorygenericballot, title = {2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot): Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-25 11:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/2026-midterms-house-popular-vote-margin-of-victory-generic-ballot/}}
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