Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? Kalshi Odds
Snapshot October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC · Category: Politics · Event KXHEGSETHOUT-26APR
As of October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Before Jan 1, 2029 at 84%, followed by Before Jul 1, 2028 at 82%, Before Jan 1, 2028 at 74%. 904.3K contracts have traded, 3.9K in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ Before Jan 1, 2029 ■ Before Jul 1, 2028 ■ Before Jan 1, 2028 · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If Pete Hegseth leaves as Secretary of Defense before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Pete Hegseth must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by …”
What are the Kalshi odds for Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense?
As of October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Before Jan 1, 2029 at 84%, followed by Before Jul 1, 2028 at 82%, Before Jan 1, 2028 at 74%. 904.3K contracts have traded, 3.9K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense market close?
The listed close dates range from November 1, 2026 to January 1, 2029. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 25). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketspetehegsethoutassecretaryofdefense, title = {Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-25 11:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense/}}
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