Snapshot October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC · Category: Politics · Event KXMARTIAL-29JAN20
As of October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Before Jan 20, 2029 at 40%, followed by Before Jan 1, 2028 at 36%, Before Jan 1, 2027 at 28%. 93.5K contracts have traded, 536 in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ Before Jan 20, 2029 ■ Before Jan 1, 2028 ■ Before Jan 1, 2027 · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If martial law has been imposed in the United States before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. For the purposes of this market, ‘martial law’ shall mean the suspension of civil authority and the imposition of military control over designated regions as declared by the President of the United States or Congress. The Payout Criterion does not include mere designation of military control over a specific property, such as for the opening of a new military base.”
What are the Kalshi odds for Will Trump impose martial law?
As of October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Before Jan 20, 2029 at 40%, followed by Before Jan 1, 2028 at 36%, Before Jan 1, 2027 at 28%. 93.5K contracts have traded, 536 in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the Will Trump impose martial law market close?
The listed close dates range from January 1, 2027 to January 20, 2029. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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Will Trump impose martial law? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 25). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/will-trump-impose-martial-law-before-his-term-ends/
Daily Kalshi market checks, results and settlement coverage are posted in the @Kalshi_market channel on Telegram. It is a coverage feed, not a per-market alert service.
