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AI models odds on Kalshi today

Snapshot October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC · 18 open events · refreshed twice a day

Markets on AI model releases, benchmarks and AGI timelines.

As of October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, Kalshi lists 18 open AI models events (single games and markets closing within hours left out). Most traded in the last 24 hours: Will an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess? (Before 2028 89%), Top AI model this month (gemini-4-argon-high 92%), Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026? (Anthropic 76%).

EventLeading outcome24h volumeCloses
Will an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess?Before 2028 89%2.4KJanuary 1, 2030
Top AI model this monthgemini-4-argon-high 92%2.1KOctober 31, 2026
Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?Anthropic 76%1.5KDecember 31, 2026
Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?OpenAI 16%933January 1, 2027
When will OpenAI achieve AGI?Before 2030 62%148January 1, 2030
When will any company achieve AGI?Before Jan 1, 2030 82%63January 1, 2031
When will xAI release Grok 5?Before 2027 39%55January 1, 2027
Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year?Yes 10%33January 1, 2027
Will an AI model using neuralese recurrence be first released to the public before 2027?Yes 64%32January 1, 2027
Next Gemini Pro model releaseBefore Dec 1, 2026 7.5%19December 1, 2026
Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade?United States 66%3December 31, 2029
Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena scoreabove 1490 29%0January 1, 2027
Will Tesla release a two door Model Y car for $30,000 or less before 2027?Yes 4.5%0January 1, 2027
Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026?OpenAI 84%0December 31, 2026
When will Anthropic release Claude 6?Before Dec 31, 2027 90%0December 31, 2027
When will OpenAI release GPT-7?Before 2028 82%0January 1, 2028
Best LLM at the end of the decade?Essential AI 24%0December 31, 2029
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?OpenAI 85%0January 1, 2030

For multi-outcome events the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for single-market events it is the Yes price. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.

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Cite this data

APA

AI models odds on Kalshi today. (2026, October 25). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/topic/ai-models/

BibTeX

@misc{kalshiview2026marketstopicaimodels, title = {AI models odds on Kalshi today}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-25 11:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/topic/ai-models/}}

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<a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/topic/ai-models/">Odds data: Kalshi View</a>

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Frequently asked questions

What are the Kalshi AI models odds today?

As of October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, Kalshi lists 18 open AI models events (single games and markets closing within hours left out). Most traded in the last 24 hours: Will an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess? (Before 2028 89%), Top AI model this month (gemini-4-argon-high 92%), Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026? (Anthropic 76%).

How often is this list updated?

Twice a day from Kalshi's public API. Each row links to a dated odds page or to Kalshi.