Kalshi odds today › AI
AI odds on Kalshi today
Snapshot October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC · 108 open events · refreshed twice a day
Markets on AI companies, AI policy and AI milestones.
| Event | Leading outcome | 24h volume | Closes |
|---|
| Best AI at the end of 2026? | Claude 53% | 77.7K | December 31, 2026 |
| When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? | Before Apr 1, 2027 92% | 72.6K | April 1, 2027 |
| OpenRouter AI token usage in October | Above 450T tokens 100% | 52.4K | October 26, 2026 |
| Top coding AI this month (Arena.ai) | Claude 95% | 33.6K | October 31, 2026 |
| Best AI this week | Gemini 98% | 16.5K | October 26, 2026 |
| Best AI in Oct 2026? | Gemini 88% | 12.4K | October 31, 2026 |
| OpenAI market share this week | Above 17.7% 100% | 10.1K | October 26, 2026 |
| Anthropic market share this week | Above 4.7% 100% | 8.3K | October 26, 2026 |
| When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO? | Before Jun 1, 2027 55% | 7.4K | June 1, 2027 |
| AI app downloads array index in October 2026 | Above 450 98% | 7.2K | November 8, 2026 |
| When will Anthropic release Mythos? | Before Jan 1, 2027 12% | 5.0K | January 1, 2027 |
| When will OpenAI release a personal AI agent? | Before Jan 1, 2027 26% | 3.3K | January 1, 2027 |
| Will an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess? | Before 2028 89% | 2.4K | January 1, 2030 |
| ChatGPT App Downloads in October | Above 35 98% | 2.3K | November 8, 2026 |
| Top AI model this month | gemini-4-argon-high 92% | 2.1K | October 31, 2026 |
| Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026? | Anthropic 76% | 1.5K | December 31, 2026 |
| Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year? | OpenAI 16% | 933 | January 1, 2027 |
| Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO? | Morgan Stanley 86% | 621 | January 1, 2028 |
| Top coding AI this month (DeepSWE) | ChatGPT 22% | 503 | October 31, 2026 |
| Most popular AI this week | DeepSeek 98% | 487 | October 26, 2026 |
| When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem? | Before 2028 60% | 415 | January 1, 2028 |
| Will the SCOTUS hear a case about AI and copyright law before 2027? | Yes 9.6% | 297 | January 1, 2027 |
| Moonshot AI share of spend on Oct 26, 2026 (Vercel) | Above 3.9% 94% | 285 | October 27, 2026 |
| What will Mike Sicilia say during Oracle AI World keynote? | Oracle Cloud Infrastructure / OCI 86% | 236 | November 9, 2026 |
| Anthropic share of requests on Oct 26, 2026 (Vercel) | Above 5.1% 97% | 236 | October 27, 2026 |
| Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena? | Claude 18% | 228 | January 1, 2027 |
| When will OpenAI release Astra 6.1? | Before Dec 31, 2026 64% | 208 | December 31, 2026 |
| Anthropic share of spend on Oct 28, 2026 (Vercel) | Above 31.0% 68% | 200 | October 29, 2026 |
| When will Anthropic release a personal AI agent? | Before Jan 1, 2027 57% | 180 | January 1, 2027 |
| OpenAI share of spend on Oct 26, 2026 (Vercel) | Above 13.0% 79% | 176 | October 27, 2026 |
| Top Chinese AI company this month | Xiaomi 60% | 158 | October 31, 2026 |
| Will LLM restrictions become law in 2026? | Yes 6.0% | 151 | January 2, 2027 |
| When will OpenAI achieve AGI? | Before 2030 62% | 148 | January 1, 2030 |
| Sam Altman replaced as OpenAI CEO this year? | Yes 6.5% | 139 | January 1, 2027 |
| Will AI be the #1 reason for job cuts in October? | Yes 21% | 125 | November 5, 2026 |
| Will Colorado's AI rules take effect before February 2027? | Yes 92% | 106 | February 1, 2027 |
| Which banks will take Anthropic public? | Mizuho 89% | 78 | January 1, 2028 |
| When will any company achieve AGI? | Before Jan 1, 2030 82% | 63 | January 1, 2031 |
| New York Times wins OpenAI lawsuit? | Yes 56% | 62 | January 1, 2028 |
| Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? | Anthropic 94% | 57 | January 1, 2040 |
| OpenAI share of spend on Oct 28, 2026 (Vercel) | Above 13.4% 61% | 56 | October 29, 2026 |
| When will xAI release Grok 5? | Before 2027 39% | 55 | January 1, 2027 |
| AI capability growth this year? | At least 1540 score 53% | 45 | January 1, 2027 |
| Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year? | Yes 10% | 33 | January 1, 2027 |
| Will an AI model using neuralese recurrence be first released to the public before 2027? | Yes 64% | 32 | January 1, 2027 |
| How low will the OpenAI GPT 5.5 output token price get in 2026? | $25/MTok or below 14% | 30 | April 1, 2027 |
| When will a catastrophic AI duty of care become U.S. law? | Before Jan 1, 2028 44% | 28 | January 1, 2028 |
| Will the U.S. ban any open-source AI model in 2026? | Yes 9.5% | 26 | January 1, 2027 |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution? | Before Jan 1, 2028 60% | 24 | January 1, 2028 |
| Will the US government rescind the Anthropic ban? | Before Apr 1, 2027 42% | 23 | April 1, 2027 |
For multi-outcome events the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for single-market events it is the Yes price. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
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Cite this data
APA
AI odds on Kalshi today. (2026, October 25). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/topic/ai/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketstopicai, title = {AI odds on Kalshi today}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-25 11:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/topic/ai/}}HTML credit
<a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/topic/ai/">Odds data: Kalshi View</a>
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Frequently asked questions
What are the Kalshi AI odds today?
As of October 25, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, Kalshi lists 108 open AI events (single games and markets closing within hours left out). Most traded in the last 24 hours: Best AI at the end of 2026? (Claude 53%), When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? (Before Apr 1, 2027 92%), OpenRouter AI token usage in October (Above 450T tokens 100%).
How often is this list updated?
Twice a day from Kalshi's public API. Each row links to a dated odds page or to Kalshi.